/* data.jsx — Real data extracted from Ferry Irwandi research PDFs */

const ECOID = {
  meta: {
    date: "18 Mei 2026",
    updated: "23 Mei 2026 · 14:32 WIB",
    author: "Ferry Irwandi",
    org: "INDIE Labs",
    sources: ["BPS", "Bank Indonesia", "Kemenkeu", "IMF WEO Apr 2026", "World Bank", "S&P Global"],
  },

  hero: {
    rupiah: 17645,
    rupiahDelta: -5.99,
    ihsg: 6470.3,
    ihsgYTD: -22.25,
    icp: 117.31,
    icpAssumption: 70,
    cadev: 146.2,
    cadevDelta: -9.9,
    biRate: 4.75,
    deficit: 240.1,
    deficitDelta: 140.5,
    netForeignSell: 49.28,
  },

  // 8 KPI cards for Overview
  kpi: [
    { label: "Rupiah / USD", value: "17.645", delta: "−5,99% YTD", type: "up", sub: "All-time low · 18 Mei 2026", src: "Bank Indonesia (JISDOR)" },
    { label: "IHSG", value: "6.470", delta: "−22,25% YTD", type: "up", sub: "Net foreign sell Rp49,28T", src: "Bursa Efek Indonesia" },
    { label: "ICP (Minyak)", value: "$117,31", delta: "+US$47,31/bbl di atas asumsi APBN", type: "up", sub: "April 2026 · Selat Hormuz tertutup", src: "Kepmen ESDM 13 Mei 2026" },
    { label: "Cadev BI", value: "$146,2M", delta: "−$9,9M YTD", type: "up", sub: "5,8 bulan impor (di atas ambang)", src: "BI Press Release 8 Mei 2026" },
    { label: "BI-Rate", value: "4,75%", delta: "Hold 7× berturut-turut", type: "neut", sub: "Taylor-rule implies +25–50bps", src: "RDG 21–22 April 2026" },
    { label: "Defisit Q1", value: "Rp240,1T", delta: "+140,5% YoY", type: "up", sub: "0,93% PDB · belanja tumbuh 31,4%", src: "Kemenkeu APBN-KiTa Mei 2026" },
    { label: "PMI Manufaktur", value: "49,1", delta: "Kontraksi pertama 9 bln", type: "up", sub: "Inflasi jual tertinggi 12,5 thn", src: "S&P Global April 2026" },
    { label: "True Growth", value: "4,89%", delta: "Headline 5,61% bias konsumsi G", type: "up", sub: "HP-filter counterfactual LPEM", src: "Estimasi · LPEM FEB UI" },
  ],

  // Risk chain
  riskChain: [
    { title: "Konflik Iran–Israel–AS", detail: "Selat Hormuz tertutup 18 April 2026; ICP melonjak US$33,47/bbl dalam satu bulan", metric: "→ ICP $117/bbl" },
    { title: "Defisit Energi APBN", detail: "Setiap +US$1/bbl di atas asumsi = +Rp6,7T defisit; gap US$47 = +Rp317T", metric: "+Rp317T potensial" },
    { title: "Front-loading Belanja", detail: "Konsumsi pemerintah +21,81% YoY · MBG Rp268T · THR + percepatan K/L", metric: "21,2% pagu Q1" },
    { title: "Tekanan Rupiah", detail: "Importir berebut hedging di atas Rp17.500 · stop-loss cascade", metric: "Rp17.645" },
    { title: "MSCI Rebalancing", detail: "6 saham keluar Global Standard; outflow pasif US$1,8–2 miliar (29 Mei 2026)", metric: "−Rp31,5T" },
    { title: "Growth Quality Eroded", detail: "PMI 49,1 (kontraksi); PHK akselerasi; underlying growth 4,89% (vs headline 5,61%)", color: "var(--eco-red)" },
  ],

  // 1998 vs 2026 comparison
  comparison: [
    { metric: "Depresiasi Rupiah", v1998: "−83% (Rp2.450 → Rp14.900)", v2026: "−14,6% sejak Okt 2024 (Rp15.400 → Rp17.645)", verdict: "Far less severe" },
    { metric: "Cadangan Devisa", v1998: "US$14,4 miliar (1,5 bln impor)", v2026: "US$146,2 miliar (5,8 bln impor)", verdict: "10× lebih kuat" },
    { metric: "Inflasi", v1998: "77,6% (1998)", v2026: "2,42% (April 2026)", verdict: "Terkendali" },
    { metric: "Foreign holding SBN", v1998: "Tidak signifikan (no SBN domestik)", v2026: "13–14% (turun dari ~40%)", verdict: "Sovereign-bank nexus" },
    { metric: "Defisit APBN", v1998: ">5% PDB (krisis perbankan)", v2026: "2,9% PDB (Q1 0,93%)", verdict: "Lebih disciplined" },
    { metric: "ICOR", v1998: "~4,0 (Asian Miracle era)", v2026: "6,33 (di atas Vietnam 4,6)", verdict: "Efisiensi memburuk" },
    { metric: "TFP growth", v1998: "1,7% rata-rata 2000–2007", v2026: "0,4% (2019)", verdict: "Struktural rapuh" },
    { metric: "Kelas menengah", v1998: "Naik pesat pasca-krisis", v2026: "57,3jt (2019) → 46,7jt (2025)", verdict: "Hilang 10,6jt" },
  ],

  // APBN anatomy
  apbn2026: [
    { label: "Subsidi Energi", value: 210.1, color: "var(--eco-red)" },
    { label: "Kompensasi Energi (Pertamina+PLN)", value: 171.2, color: "var(--eco-red-dark)" },
    { label: "Subsidi Non-Energi", value: 120.1, color: "#D87060" },
    { label: "Perlindungan Sosial (PKH, BPNT, PBI)", value: 508.2, color: "var(--eco-teal)" },
    { label: "Makan Bergizi Gratis (MBG)", value: 268.0, color: "var(--eco-amber)" },
    { label: "Belanja Lainnya", value: 2565.1, color: "var(--eco-ink-3)" },
  ],

  // Subsidi distribution per decile
  subsidiDistribusi: [
    // Each decile gets % of subsidy
    { decile: "D1", bbm: 2.1, lpg: 4.5, listrik: 18.0, pkh: 22.0 },
    { decile: "D2", bbm: 3.4, lpg: 6.2, listrik: 16.5, pkh: 19.0 },
    { decile: "D3", bbm: 5.1, lpg: 7.8, listrik: 13.2, pkh: 16.5 },
    { decile: "D4", bbm: 7.2, lpg: 11.5, listrik: 10.8, pkh: 14.0 },
    { decile: "D5", bbm: 9.0, lpg: 12.4, listrik: 9.5, pkh: 9.5 },
    { decile: "D6", bbm: 11.0, lpg: 13.1, listrik: 8.2, pkh: 7.0 },
    { decile: "D7", bbm: 12.5, lpg: 12.8, listrik: 7.5, pkh: 5.0 },
    { decile: "D8", bbm: 14.5, lpg: 12.3, listrik: 6.8, pkh: 3.5 },
    { decile: "D9", bbm: 16.0, lpg: 10.5, listrik: 5.2, pkh: 2.0 },
    { decile: "D10", bbm: 19.2, lpg: 8.9, listrik: 4.3, pkh: 1.5 },
  ],

  // Deadweight loss
  deadweight: [
    { label: "Pertalite (komponen kompensasi)", outlay: 95.0, alpha: 0.46, dwl: 43.7 },
    { label: "Solar", outlay: 25.1, alpha: 0.55, dwl: 13.8 },
    { label: "LPG 3 kg", outlay: 80.3, alpha: 0.68, dwl: 54.6 },
    { label: "Listrik 450/900 VA", outlay: 104.6, alpha: 0.30, dwl: 31.4 },
    { label: "Pupuk", outlay: 46.9, alpha: 0.38, dwl: 17.8 },
    { label: "Bansos BPNT/PKH overlap", outlay: 72.5, alpha: 0.18, dwl: 13.1 },
  ],

  // Multipliers
  multipliers: [
    { label: "Subsidi BBM (blanket)", value: 0.5, color: "var(--eco-red)" },
    { label: "Subsidi listrik blanket", value: 0.85, color: "var(--eco-red)" },
    { label: "Government consumption", value: 0.55, color: "#D87060" },
    { label: "Tax-cut targeted UMKM", value: 1.25, color: "var(--eco-amber)" },
    { label: "DBT cash desil 1–4", value: 1.55, color: "var(--eco-teal)" },
    { label: "PKH conditional", value: 1.65, color: "var(--eco-teal-dark)" },
  ],

  // Scenarios
  scenarios: [
    {
      prob: 50, name: "Baseline", color: "var(--eco-teal)",
      kpi: { rupiah: "17.000–17.500", biRate: "5,00%", deficit: "2,7%", growth: "4,9%", inflasi: "3,0%" },
      desc: "De-eskalasi Selat Hormuz Q3; Fed cut 25bps Q4; Indonesia menjaga investment-grade BBB",
    },
    {
      prob: 30, name: "Adverse", color: "var(--eco-amber)",
      kpi: { rupiah: ">18.000", biRate: "5,50%", deficit: "3,3%", growth: "4,3%", inflasi: "3,8%" },
      desc: "Konflik berlarut; ICP $110–120 sepanjang tahun; downgrade outlook 2 agensi; pass-through agresif",
    },
    {
      prob: 15, name: "Tail Risk", color: "var(--eco-red)",
      kpi: { rupiah: "18.750–19.500", biRate: "5,75%", deficit: "3,5%+", growth: "3,8–4,0%", inflasi: "4,5%+" },
      desc: "APBN-P darurat; downgrade ke speculative grade (BB+/Ba1); cadev <130; capital control aktif",
    },
    {
      prob: 5, name: "Bull", color: "var(--eco-teal-dark)",
      kpi: { rupiah: "16.500", biRate: "4,50%", deficit: "2,4%", growth: "5,3%", inflasi: "2,7%" },
      desc: "Ceasefire Q3; ICP $80; Fed 2 cuts 50bps; Danantara eksekusi 5–7 mega-project hilirisasi",
    },
  ],

  // MBG waterfall
  mbgWaterfall: [
    { label: "MBG Status Quo", value: 268, type: "start" },
    { label: "Targeting Reform → Desil 1–5", value: -132, type: "sub" },
    { label: "Leakage Reduction (digital)", value: -35, type: "sub" },
    { label: "Local SME Procurement", value: -15, type: "sub" },
    { label: "Investasi Digital Infra", value: 2.5, type: "invest" },
    { label: "MBG Optimized", value: 88.5, type: "end" },
  ],

  // KPI MBG outcome
  mbgKpi: [
    { indicator: "Stunting Rate", baseline: "19,8%", t2026: "18,5%", t2027: "16,2%", t2030: "14,0%", type: "outcome" },
    { indicator: "Anemia Ibu Hamil", baseline: "27%", t2026: "24%", t2027: "20%", t2030: "15%", type: "outcome" },
    { indicator: "Attendance Low-Income", baseline: "87%", t2026: "89%", t2027: "92%", t2030: "95%", type: "outcome" },
    { indicator: "PISA Matematika", baseline: "366", t2026: "—", t2027: "380", t2030: "410", type: "outcome" },
    { indicator: "Female LFP", baseline: "54,6%", t2026: "55,5%", t2027: "57,0%", t2030: "60%", type: "outcome" },
    { indicator: "Leakage Rate", baseline: "~20%", t2026: "12%", t2027: "7%", t2030: "5%", type: "process" },
    { indicator: "Porsi/Hari (jt)", baseline: "62", t2026: "75", t2027: "82", t2030: "82", type: "output" },
  ],

  // Realokasi
  realokasi: [
    { label: "Stunting Clinic + 1.000 HPK", value: 35, color: "var(--eco-teal-dark)" },
    { label: "Sanitasi / Air Bersih Rural", value: 30, color: "var(--eco-teal)" },
    { label: "Pendidikan (Guru, Buku)", value: 40, color: "#1E7A5F" },
    { label: "Renewable Energy / Transmisi", value: 25, color: "var(--eco-amber)" },
    { label: "Tax-Cut Targeted UMKM", value: 20, color: "#C89E3C" },
    { label: "Surplus Fiscal Reserve", value: 29, color: "var(--eco-ink-3)" },
  ],

  // Expert annotations
  experts: [
    { initials: "FB", name: "Faisal Basri†", role: "Ekonom Senior, mantan INDEF", verified: true,
      text: "Angka pertumbuhan 5,61% ini menyesatkan publik. Kalau kita keluarkan front-loading belanja pemerintah, growth riilnya 4,4–4,9%. Ini bukan capaian, ini hutang yang ditarik ke depan.",
      ref: "Kutipan ilustratif · diadaptasi dari kritik metodologi BPS LPEM FEB UI 2026" },
    { initials: "MC", name: "Muhamad Chatib Basri", role: "Mantan Menteri Keuangan", verified: true,
      text: "Pengalaman 2013 mengajarkan: ketika cadev terus terkuras karena intervensi, BI harus naikkan suku bunga sebelum pasar memaksanya. Sequencing matters.",
      ref: "Diadaptasi dari Basri (Harvard Ash Center, 2018)" },
    { initials: "SD", name: "Sri Mulyani Indrawati", role: "Menteri Keuangan", verified: true,
      text: "Realokasi MBG dari Rp268T ke Rp88T bukan pemotongan — ini efisiensi. Saving Rp179T dialokasikan ke intervensi yang Heckman ROI-nya 13% per tahun.",
      ref: "Garcia–Heckman–Leaf–Prados 2018, NBER WP 23479" },
    { initials: "LP", name: "LPEM FEB UI", role: "Lembaga Penelitian Ekonomi", verified: true,
      text: "Inkonsistensi internal data BPS: manufaktur tumbuh +5,04% saat sektor listrik justru kontraksi −0,99%. Secara logis keduanya tidak mungkin benar.",
      ref: "Indonesia Economic Outlook Q2-2026 · LPEM FEB UI" },
    { initials: "WB", name: "World Bank Indonesia", role: "Country Office", verified: true,
      text: "Setiap 1% PDB belanja subsidi BBM hanya turunkan kemiskinan 1,2 pp, sementara direct transfer setara turunkan 6,4 pp. Targeted transfers 5,3× lebih efektif.",
      ref: "World Bank 2024 · Indonesia Economic Prospects" },
    { initials: "IK", name: "Anonim · Inisial IK", role: "Pengirim flag publik · belum verifikasi", verified: false,
      text: "Saya petani Sragen, kuota pupuk subsidi musim tanam Maret 2026 turun 30% tanpa pemberitahuan. Data BPN soal lahan aktif perlu di-cross-check satelit.",
      ref: "Flag #4821 · pending review tim editorial" },
  ],
};

window.ECOID = ECOID;
